基于多时间尺度的城市轨道交通短时OD估计

基于状态空间模型构建了城市轨道交通短时OD估计的多模型组合方法,估计早晚高峰期间15 min内进站客流的去向目的站.组合模型以不同时间尺度下的进站客流分流率为状态变量,并利用历史数据预估其中通勤客流的分流率,然后通过交互多模型算法加权融合不同时间尺度下的分流率估计结果.以北京地铁为案例,研究表明:早高峰期间的15 min分流率估计误差的平均值和最大值分别为16.4%和21.8%,晚高峰期间分别为22.7%和24.6%,比既有文献的估计误差减小了约一半.本文的研究成果可为实时的线网客流分布预测提供更准确的输入数据,以辅助运营管理部门实现客流预警和应急响应.     

The visual impact of development in coastal zone areas

Abstract

The focus of this paper is theoretical, as well as methodological. It reviews previous studies of visual impact and reports research by the author on people's evaluation of the appropriateness of different man‐made facilities in different coastal‐area contexts and other environments. In this study, subjects were asked to react to slides developed through the use of landscape models and experimental facilities to simulate the appearance of a building in the landscape, while systematically varying the visual relatedness between the two. Specific interest centered on the variable of congruity vs. contrast between the appearance of the building and its landscape context, manipulated by co‐varying the attributes of color and size to create a five‐point scale of contrast/obtrusiveness. The hypothesis was that judgments of appropriateness, and to a lesser extent judgments of liking, would vary inversely with level of contrast. The role of two further variables, the functional significance of the building in its setting, and the character of the setting itself, was also investigated. The author reviews methodological issues involved where subjects respond to visual stimuli for purposes of judging change in visual quality. These methodological issues include: stimulus‐selection and problems of simulation, choice of response measures, and choice of respondents, and the treatment of individual differences. The author calls for development of standardized scales and indices such as “perceptually‐relevant environmental quality indicators.”     

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分析了我国运输代理业规模化经营的现状,得出了我国运输代理企业与国外运输代理企业相比,还存在规模化经营水平较低,难以形成有效竞争的结论,进一步分析了问题产生的原因. 从技术层面提出了改善外部环境的必要性,从企业管理角度给出了改变我国运输代理业规模化经营水平低的途径. 针对建立基于虚拟企业的运输代理联盟这一途径作了较深入的分析,包括当前新的经济发展形态、运输代理业客户需求的变化、建立基于虚拟企业的运输代理联盟的可行性以及理论基础. 最后指出建立基于虚拟企业的运输代理联盟既是传统的运输代理业的需要,又能满足客户需求的变化.     

两类弱非线性振动问题的新解法

用插值摄动法[1] 求解两类弱非线性振动问题 .其一是保守系统的非线性自由振动 ;其二是参数振动 .前者由于把求解微分方程的问题转化成为求解二次代数方程 ,计算过程十分简单 ;后者由于把一个二阶微分方程的求解转化成为两次积分问题 ,也使计算过程简化 .有算例、算例表明 ,本文结果是可靠的     

TOD 规划设计理论研究

轨道交通站点的主要职能之一是运输乘客,通过网络化建设推动人口的大量流动,同时也产生多空间尺度效应,公共交通导向开发(TOD)可以满足多元化的功能需求,激发影响区域的城市活力和协同公交都市的建设,理论和实践价值越发突出。然而目前的TOD相关研究成果主要基于单一尺度进行探讨,缺乏系统、多尺度、多维度的梳理。基于此,通过文献计量法分析TOD理论演进,研究新城市主义影响下的站点综合效应、精明增长影响下的站区集聚效应、多维度时代的站群结构效应,探明不同发展阶段TOD规划设计理论。对比中美语境下TOD概念差异,发现中国城市整体密度高、密度分布均质化、大城市通勤时距长、职住不匹配的问题突显。针对中国现在面临的问题,分别从站点、站区和站群尺度,提出TOD精细设计、协同规划、时空交互的开发建议和策略,希望对未来的TOD规划设计提供借鉴。     

轨道衡辅助设计及绘图系统

本文阐述了轨道衡辅助设计及绘图系统 GDHCADD 的内容、功能及其应用.该系统采用图块拼装方式完成轨道衡工程的施工设计或竣工图,适用于轨道衡为 GGG-22F 及 LT-03两种型号的多种不同组合情况,并采用绘图作业管理程序 GJM 和 WJMF,以实现系统的组织.     

Lessons from a Multi-Scale Historical Reconstruction of Newfoundland and Labrador Fisheries

In this article we use a multi-scale, multi-method historical reconstruction of post– World War II social-ecological interactions within fisheries in Newfoundland and Labrador to explore the dynamics of intensification, expansion, and resource degradation in managed fisheries. Our case study draws on landings statistics, other archival information, and the Local Ecological Knowledge (LEK) of fish harvesters to explore these linked dynamics at the macro, meso, and micro levels. By some measures we found large scale trends toward intensification of effort leading to over-harvesting at macro (province wide) levels. At the same time, at the local level (micro-scale) and across sectors and regions (the meso-scale), we found highly fluid fishing practices and a complex suite of stated motivations for change. As a basis for effective governance, an understanding of the dynamics of interactive restructuring in social ecological systems will require multi-scale analyses that are sensitive to this complexity.     

Hypothetical bias in Stated Choice Experiments: Is it a problem? And if so,how do we deal with it?

The extent to which Stated Choice (SC) experiments suffer from hypothetical bias continues to be a controversial topic in the literature. This research provides further evidence in this debate by examining the existence of hypothetical bias in a transport-related SC experiment. Data for this research were sourced from a University of Sydney study exploring the effect of exposure-based charging on motorist behaviour. The sample included 148 Sydney motorists who were recruited to take part in the 10-week GPS driving field study (Revealed Preference/RP data). In addition, participants were also required to complete an SC survey which was designed to mimic the RP decision context in order to capture what participants indicated they would do as opposed to what participants actually did in reaction to the charging regime.The current state of practice for measuring hypothetical bias in the literature is to compare aggregate differences in model outcomes using SC and RP data sources. Aggregate analysis is limited in its scope and does not allow for the calculation of the prevalence of hypothetical bias (i.e., how many participants are affected by hypothetical bias). This research is uniquely structured to allow for individual categorisation of hypothetical bias by comparing SC and RP data from the same sample for the direct purpose of investigating the prevalence of hypothetical bias. Furthermore, the extent to which mitigation techniques (cheap talk and certainty scales) influence hypothetical bias is also explored. The findings from this research show that the SC model estimates are prone to hypothetical bias and that the mitigation techniques have potential to compensate for this inherent bias.     

Winkler地基上材料非线性矩形薄板的主共振

为了研究Winkler地基上材料非线性矩形薄板受简谐激励的非线性振动,应用弹性力学理论,建立了其动力学方程,并用Galerkin方法将其转化为非线性振动方程.应用非线性振动的多尺度法,求得系统主共振的近似解,并进行了数值计算.研究表明,随着阻尼系数、几何参数和激励幅值的改变,主共振响应曲线有跳跃和滞后现象,振幅随阻尼系数的增大而减小.此外,还对系统主共振响应方程进行了奇异性分析,得到了开折参数平面的转迁集和分岔图.     

一种融合小波变换和数学形态学的图像边缘检测算法

针对传统图像边缘检测方法中出现噪边、边缘定位不精确等缺点,提出一种融合小波变换和数学形态学的图像边缘检测算法。先将图像进行小波分解,高频部分利用小波模极大值噪声抑制和尺度相关子带关联算法进行边缘检测,可以很好地减弱噪声;低频部分利用修正的形态算子进行形态学边缘检测,能够检测出弱边且定位准确;最后对两种方法得到的边缘图像进行融合。实验结果表明,该算法能有效抑制噪声,提高边缘精度并且定位准确.